Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off with an NFC South battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers aim to stay on top of the division after a strong start, thanks to exceptional quarterback play from Baker Mayfield. Meanwhile, the Falcons look to secure another win against an NFC South rival after defeating the Saints last week with Younghoe Koo’s 58-yard field goal as time expired.
Line, Odds:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
Falcons -2.0, Total: 43.5
Previous Meeting: Buccaneers 29, Falcons 25 (December 10th, 2023)
Start/Sit
Accuracy:
It almost doesn’t seem fair to keep comparing my picks with NFL.com’s, as the results have been quite lopsided so far. I’ve out-predicted them by at least 13% each week and even have more correct picks than their total picks. But here are the numbers anyway:
Week 4:
- BetLegg: 70.9%
- NFL.com: 53.2%
Season Total:
- BetLegg: 67.2%
- NFL.com: 49.7%
Weekly Difference for BetLegg vs NFL.com:
Week 1: +13.1%
Week 2: +15.8%
Week 3: +22.6%
Start ‘Em:
QB Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield has unexpectedly entered the must-start category for fantasy quarterbacks. He has scored below 19.8 points just once this season and is currently the QB3, trailing only Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels. Rivalry games in prime time often bring out the most competitive side of players, and I anticipate Baker will be slinging the ball downfield frequently.
RB Bijan Robinson
I normally wouldn’t include Bijan Robinson in my starts/sits, as he was drafted as the RB3 in most leagues. However, he’s been somewhat disappointing considering his ADP, finding the end zone just once this season. Despite this, given his consistent volume and involvement in the passing game, you shouldn’t overthink this. Keep Bijan locked into your lineups. Better fantasy performances are upcoming.
WR Chris Godwin/WR Mike Evans
I have recommended starting both players in this duo every week this season, and it has paid off. Chris Godwin has recorded at least 6 receptions and 8 targets in each of his four games so far. He has been one of the most reliable receivers in fantasy football thus far, and we can certainly expect this to continue against the Falcons.
Mike Evans, meanwhile, had two poor games against the Lions and Broncos sandwiched between two highly productive games against the Commanders and Eagles. Evans is always a red zone and big play threat, and I expect Baker Mayfield to look his way early and often.
WR Drake London/Darnell Mooney
Drake London is clearly Kirk Cousins’ top target, earning 31 targets through four games. While he struggled in Week 1 against the Broncos, he’s been solid ever since. I don’t expect a massive game from London, but he has an established floor, and is worth a start.
Darnell Mooney has been consistently getting looks from Kirk Cousins, and it seems the fifth-year receiver has developed great chemistry with his new quarterback. Over the last three weeks, Mooney has received 21 targets and has recorded at least 56 receiving yards in each of those games. With Kyle Pitts fading in and out of the offense, Mooney can provide some stability and should be a viable WR3/FLEX option this week.
Sit ‘Em:
QB Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins has yet to surpass 17.54 fantasy points in a game this season. With 864 passing yards, he’s ranked only 15th in the league. He has also thrown just 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Tampa Bay has allowed only one passing touchdown all season. Until we see Cousins return to his old form, I like keeping him on the bench.
RB Rachaad White
Rachaad White has been one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry, the lowest among players with more than 20 carries this season. Bucky Irving has started cutting into White’s rushing attempts, turning this backfield into a 50/50 split. With Irving averaging 5.8 yards per carry, he offers more rushing upside. White’s involvement in the passing game is the only thing keeping him on most fantasy rosters
RB Tyler Allgeier
Tyler Allgeier has been very efficient with his touches this season, averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per carry. Last week, he out-carried Bijan Robinson 8-7 against the Saints. While Bijan appears to be back to full strength after nursing a hamstring injury, I’m keeping Allgeier on my bench for now, but I’ll be monitoring closely to see if he continues to cut into Bijan’s rushing attempts.
TE Kyle Pitts
Kyle Pitts is a talented player, and his fantasy production remains a mystery. He scored 0.0 points in Week 4 after scoring at least 7.9 PPR points in two of his prior three matchups. For your own mental health, keep him on your bench this week.
Game Pick
Both teams enter this game with momentum. The Buccaneers embarrassed the Eagles last Sunday, defeating them 33-16. Meanwhile, the Falcons have done a good job at keeping games close this season, with all four of their contests decided by 5 points or less. The Buccaneers lead the all-time series against the Falcons 31-30. While stats don’t tell the full story, here are some key numbers to consider if you need help making your game pick:
Tampa Bay Offense: 24.3 PPG (T-11th)
Tampa Bay Defense: 19.5 PPG (9th)
Atlanta Offense: 18.8 PPG (22nd)
Atlanta Defense: 21.3 PPG (T-14th)
Game Pick: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 20
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