Week 7 kicks off with a familiar face returning to The Big Easy, as Sean Payton brings his Denver Broncos into the Superdome to face his former team, the New Orleans Saints.
Line, Odds:
Denver Broncos (3-3) @ New Orleans Saints (2-4)
Broncos -3.0, Total: 37.5
Previous Meeting: Saints 31, Broncos 3 (November 29th, 2020)
Start/Sit
Accuracy:
As Aerosmith once said, ‘It’s the same old story, same old song and dance.’ While they probably weren’t referring to BetLegg having a higher accuracy in start/sit predictions than NFL.com, I wouldn’t be surprised if a remake of the song comes out soon. And now, here are the numbers:
Week 6:
- BetLegg: 66.7%
- NFL.com: 62.5%
Season Total:
- BetLegg: 67.3%
- NFL.com: 52.2%
Weekly Difference for BetLegg vs NFL.com:
Week 1: +13.1%
Week 2: +15.8%
Week 3: +22.6%
Week 4: +17.3%
Week 5: +16.7%
Week 6: +4.2%
Start ‘Em:
RB Alvin Kamara
For the sake of having an offensive player listed in the Start ‘Em category, I am including Alvin Kamara. He is a must-start player every week and should be especially valuable to the Saints’ offense, which is missing Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill this week.
Denver D/ST
I don’t often include a defense as a must-start, especially against the league’s fifth-highest-scoring offense, but the Denver D/ST has scored the fourth-most fantasy points this season. They are up against a Saints offense that struggles with protection and a rookie quarterback who threw two interceptions against a less talented defense in Tampa Bay.
Sit ‘Em:
QB Spencer Rattler
Spencer Rattler is only 3% owned in Yahoo Fantasy, so this recommendation is more for those who might be desperate enough to consider adding him. Simple advice: don’t. Although Rattler didn’t look terrible in last week’s loss, the Broncos allow the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks, and Rattler is without his two best receivers, Olave and Shaheed.
QB Bo Nix
Bo Nix has been improving every week, as reflected in his fantasy scores. He has posted back-to-back 20+ point performances against the Chargers and Raiders. However, despite Baker Mayfield dropping 28 points on them last week, the Saints still allow the ninth-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. Avoid starting Nix if possible.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin
Jaleel McLaughlin has cut into Javonte Williams’ workload, but this has been done in a way that leaves McLaughlin with little value himself. He has received between 3 and 15 touches in games this season, so it is hard to predict how many times Sean Payton will get him the ball.
Other Players:
WR Bub Means, TE Juwan Johnson
Bub Means and Juwan Johnson should expect to see increased usage in Week 7 due to major injuries in the Saints’ offense. Means saw eight targets from Spencer Rattler last week, while Johnson received three. While they are neither must-starts nor must-sits, they can be considered desperation pickups in deeper leagues.
RB Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams is hard to get excited about, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, which ties him for 48th in the league. Jaleel McLaughlin has cut into his already inconsistent workload, and coming off a short week, he will be hard to trust as an RB2. He does, however, have some FLEX appeal in this positive matchup.
Game Pick
The Broncos have exceeded early expectations, posting a 3-3 record through their first six games. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has shown improvement with each start, and the Broncos’ defense has proven to be one of the league’s elite units. The Saints, who outscored opponents 91-29 in the first two weeks, have since lost four straight games and now find themselves in a must-win situation in Week 7. Spencer Rattler will make his second start of the season with Derek Carr sidelined due to an oblique injury, and he will do so without receivers Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and the versatile Taysom Hill. I think this will be a sloppy game, and turnovers will be the biggest factor. Expect a low-scoring game, and I predict at least one non-offensive touchdown.
Here are some key numbers to consider if you need help making your game pick:
New Orleans Offense: 27.8 PPG (T-5th)
New Orleans Defense: 24.5 PPG (23rd)
Denver Offense: 18.7 PPG (25th)
Denver Defense: 16.0 PPG (4th)
Game Pick: Saints 20, Broncos 19
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