Thursday Night Football Preview – Vikings @ Rams

Week 8 kicks off with the Vikings heading to Los Angeles to face the Rams. Minnesota looks to rebound from a last-minute loss to the Lions, while the Rams, fresh off a win against the Raiders, aim for an upset at home. Rumors surround Cooper Kupp’s availability on the trade market, and Puka Nacua’s return from IR looms. I’ll help you navigate your start/sit decisions for this Thursday Night matchup.

Line, Odds:

Minnesota Vikings (5-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-4)

Vikings -3.0, Total: 48.5

Previous Meeting: Rams 30, Vikings 23 (December 26th, 2021)

Start/Sit

Accuracy:

“Lucky number 7” meaning, of course, seven weeks of the NFL season, and seven weeks of BetLegg being more accurate in starts/sits than NFL.com.

And no, I won’t stop with the corny intros to this section every week.

Here are the numbers:

Week 7:

BetLegg: 66.7%
NFL.com: 60.7%

Season Total:

BetLegg: 67.3%
NFL.com: 53.5%

Weekly Difference for BetLegg vs NFL.com (Last 5 weeks):

Week 3: +22.6%
Week 4: +17.3%
Week 5: +16.7%
Week 6: +4.2%
Week 7: +7.0%

Start ‘Em:

QB Sam Darnold

The Rams allow a league-worst 11.6 yards per completion and are tied for 26th in the league, giving up 1.7 passing touchdowns per game. Sam Darnold is tied for 5th in passing touchdowns this season, and with T.J. Hockenson potentially returning, he will have all of his weapons at his disposal and should be able to attack the Rams through the air.

RB Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones is currently RB13 in half-PPR leagues. Though he’s nursing a hamstring injury, he played without restrictions last week despite the same issue and scored 19.1 half-PPR points in a much tougher matchup against the Lions. The Rams have allowed the 9th-most points to opposing RBs this season, and the team has confirmed he’s good to go for Thursday, so start him with confidence.

WR Jordan Addison

As mentioned earlier, the Rams struggle against the pass, allowing 11.6 yards per completion. Addison is always one big play away from finishing in the WR1/WR2 ranks, and with the consistent targets he’s been receiving, I believe this is the week we finally see that happen.

QB Matthew Stafford

Stafford has struggled this season, throwing for just three touchdowns and four interceptions, and he has yet to finish a week over his projected points. However, his best game came in Week 1, when he threw for 317 yards and a touchdown—the only game in which he had Cooper Kupp healthy for the entire contest. I expect these two to connect early and often, which should finally push Stafford over his weekly projection.

WR Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp is back in the lineup for the first time since Week 2, when he went down with an ankle injury. In the six quarters he’s played, Kupp has been targeted 27 times, catching 18 passes for 147 yards and a touchdown. The Vikings have allowed the most points to opposing receivers, making Kupp an easy start this week—assuming he isn’t traded before Thursday night.

Other players to start: WR Justin Jefferson, RB Kyren Williams

Sit ‘Em:

All Other Rams’ Receivers

There’s no denying that Cooper Kupp is a target hog, and his return significantly lowers the fantasy value of all other Rams’ receivers. While one of Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington, Tyler Johnson, or Demarcus Robinson might find the end zone, it’s impossible to predict who that will be. Your best bet is to bench all of them.

Other Players:

RB Ty Chandler

Ty Chandler has been a weekly ‘Sit’ candidate in my Start/Sit recommendations. He has yet to surpass 4.9 half-PPR points since his 82-yard performance in Week 2. If you’re in an extremely deep league, Chandler could have nice value if the Vikings take it easy on Aaron Jones during this short week while he nurses a hamstring injury. For those not in deep leagues, he remains a solid stash in case Jones misses any time.

TE Colby Parkinson

Parkinson has been one of the most unpredictable tight ends this season, with his usage fluctuating from as many as 13 targets to as few as 2. If the passing game opens up more with Kupp’s return, Parkinson could become a key target for underneath routes. While his floor remains low, you could certainly do worse than starting him.

Game Pick

The Vikings are coming off their first lost of the season against the Detroit Lions. The Vikings made two comebacks of 11 points during this game, but ultimately surrendered the go-ahead field goal with 19 seconds left. The Vikings should be getting all of their offensive weapons back, and look to get back into the win column after a fantastic start to their campaign.

After making the playoffs last year, the Rams have started this season at 2-4 and have faced injuries to key players. With Cooper Kupp returning this week, the passing game should open up more for the Rams, who have scored more than 20 points only once this season. In the run game, Kyren Williams has excelled, currently tied for the most rushing touchdowns in the league with 8. To upset the Vikings at home, the Rams will need their offense to fire on all cylinders.

Here are some key numbers to consider if you need help making your game pick:

Minnesota Offense: 28.0 PPG (6th)
Minnesota Defense: 17.8 PPG (6th)

L.A. Rams Offense: 19.0 PPG (23rd)
L.A. Rams Defense: 25.7 PPG (25th)

Game Pick: Vikings 27, Rams 24