The NFL is certainly in the Halloween spirit, tricking us into thinking another Jets prime-time game will be a treat (see what I did there?). If you’re keeping count, this is the sixth time that New York will be featured as the only team we can watch (MNF weeks 1 & 6, TNF week 3, London week 5, SNF week 7), and it has not been pretty. Houston has been nationally featured just once; however, they also have not been playing the most exciting style of football, but at least they have a winning record.
Line, Odds:
Houston Texans (6-2) @ New York Jets (2-6)
Jets -2.5, Total: 42.5
Previous Meeting: Jets 30, Texans 6 (December 10th, 2023)
Start/Sit
Accuracy:
At this point in the season, we have to wonder why NFL.com has not yet come knocking at my door—whether that be for a job or to file a defamation lawsuit against their Start/Sit expert, who I beat once again in Week 8. I also don’t include players who are only 1% rostered or have been labeled as “Out” for the game (insert sideways eyes emoji here).
Here are the numbers:
Week 8 Accuracy:
- BetLegg: 69.6%
- NFL.com: 62.7%
Season Accuracy Total:
- BetLegg: 67.6%
- NFL.com: 54.6%
Weekly Accuracy Difference for BetLegg vs NFL.com (Last 5 weeks):
Week 4: +17.3%
Week 5: +16.7%
Week 6: +4.2%
Week 7: +7.0%
Week 8: +6.9%
Start ‘Em:
RB Joe Mixon, Texans
The most obvious pick? Yes. The only player I’m excited about tonight? Yes.
Joe Mixon has been sensational this season, averaging 20.9 half-PPR points per game, which is second only to Derrick Henry. He may be more involved in the passing game as well, since the Texans are without both Nico Collins (IR) and Stefon Diggs (IR).
WR Tank Dell, Texans
This is not a great matchup for Tank Dell, as the Jets allow the third-fewest points to opposing wideouts, so expectations shouldn’t be too high. However, as mentioned above, the Texans are without two starting receivers in Diggs and Collins, and C.J. Stroud will need to throw the ball to somebody. Tank should get enough volume to produce WR2 numbers, even against a tough Jets secondary.
K Ka’imi Fairbairn, Texans
I’m as surprised as you are that I am listing a kicker in the Start ‘Em section. The reason I do not typically predict kickers is due to the randomness of the position. Fairbairn, however, has been consistent, hitting multiple field goals in six games this season. He currently ranks as the third-highest-scoring kicker in fantasy, and the Jets allow the eighth-most points to kickers.
RB Breece Hall, Jets
Breece Hall has had a rollercoaster of a season so far, finishing with anywhere from 2.8 to 23.1 half-PPR points through the first eight weeks. His large workload and explosive ability on any play give him significant upside, and it is only a matter of time until we see a 30+ point performance out of him.
WR Garrett Wilson, Jets
Garrett Wilson remains the most targeted player in the league by a large margin, with 84 targets on the season. The addition of Davante Adams has not hindered his success, as Wilson has outperformed Adams with a line of 10-178-0 on 17 targets, compared to Adams’ 7-84-0 on 15 targets through their first two games together. The Texans’ defense is likely to pressure Rodgers early, meaning he will need to force quick passes to his go-to target.
Sit ‘Em:
QB C.J. Stroud, Texans
C.J. Stroud is currently ranked QB23 in points per game for the season, and he is without his top two wideouts, Diggs and Collins. The Jets’ defense also allows the fifth-fewest points to quarterbacks, so if you have the option to look elsewhere this week, I would certainly consider doing so.
QB Aaron Rodgers, Jets
Rodgers is right there with C.J. Stroud, sitting at QB22 in average points per game for the season. He has been knocked down 34 times this season, which is the third most in the league. The Texans also have the third-highest sack rate in the league at 9.9%. The Jets are without starting right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, and if they struggle with pass protection, it may be a spooky night for the 40-year-old (see what I did there, again?).
RB Braelon Allen, Jets
Braelon Allen saw his second-most touches last week against the Patriots, but a large part of this was likely to keep Breece Hall feeling fresh for this Thursday night matchup. He does not have much standalone value when Hall is healthy and playing at full strength.
TE Tyler Conklin, Jets
Tyler Conklin gives us a little bit of excitement every now and then, but he is not a consistent fantasy producer. He has four games with over 3.8 half-PPR points and four games under 3.8 half-PPR points. He is touchdown-dependent and not worth the gamble against the Texans, who have allowed zero receiving touchdowns to tight ends so far this season.
Other players to sit: WR Mike Williams, Jets
Other Players:
TE Dalton Schultz, Texans
Dalton Schultz sits perfectly between being a start recommendation and a sit recommendation. He should see an uptick in volume with the Texans down their top two pass catchers; however, Schultz is averaging just 4.23 half-PPR points per game this year, which puts him outside the top 25. Despite the low output, he is 11th in the league in tight end targets (38), and this seems like his best chance to have a breakout game.
Game Pick
The Texans are off to a hot start this season, though in non-dominant fashion. They are 6-2 but have only outscored opponents by a total of 9 points on the season. They have yet to establish any real dominance outside of a Week 6, 41-21 victory over the Patriots. C.J. Stroud has been solid, throwing for 1,948 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, with a passer rating of 95.6. With Nico Collins expected to return next week and Stefon Diggs out for the season, their passing game takes a significant hit, making this another game where they may need to slug out a last-possession victory.
The Jets, on the other hand, are off to an unexpectedly slow start. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 1,896 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, with an 85.1 passer rating. The Jets recently acquired star receiver Davante Adams from the Raiders, but he has yet to find the end zone or catch more than four passes in a game since reuniting with Rodgers. The Jets have lost five straight games, including their worst loss of the season last week against a struggling Patriots team. They will need their offensive line to protect Rodgers against the Texans’ pass rush and will likely need to get Adams more involved in the passing game to end their losing streak.
Here are some key numbers to consider if you need help making your game pick:
Houston Offense: 23.5 PPG (14th)
Houston Defense: 22.4 PPG (15th)
N.Y. Jets Offense: 18.8 PPG (25th)
N.Y. Jets Defense: 21.3 PPG (11th)
Game Pick: Texans 23, Jets 20
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