Thursday Night Football Preview – Bengals @ Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow looks to pass against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

As we officially pass the halfway point of the NFL season, Week 10 kicks off with the projected highest-scoring Thursday night game of the year, with Vegas setting the total at 52.5 points. The Bengals will look to pull off an upset after their highest offensive output of the season, putting up 41 points against the Raiders in Week 9. Meanwhile, the Ravens are one of the hottest teams in football, having scored 41 points in three of their last five games. The Ravens won the first matchup between these two earlier this season, but can the Bengals upset Lamar Jackson and company on the road? Keep reading for my prediction, along with recommended starts and sits for this marquee matchup.

Line, Odds:

Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

Ravens -6.5, Total: 52.5

Previous Meeting: Ravens 41, Bengals 38 (October 6th, 2024)

Start/Sit

Accuracy:

One may start to consider my constant beating up on NFL.com as bullying, but I’d say they just need to be more accurate. I have now out-predicted NFL.com in 9/9 weeks, and I have even had to stop including all of my weekly numbers in the accuracy summary to ensure this article isn’t too long. I also went 8/10 in last Thursday night’s game, and look to repeat that same success this week.

Here are the numbers:

Week 9 Accuracy:

BetLegg: 71.6%
NFL.com: 53.6

Season Accuracy Total:

BetLegg: 68.0%
NFL.com: 54.5%

Weekly Accuracy Difference for BetLegg vs NFL.com (Last 5 weeks):

Week 5: +16.7%
Week 6: +4.2%
Week 7: +7.0%
Week 8: +6.9%
Week 9: +18.0%

Start ‘Em:

QB Joe Burrow, Bengals

Joe Burrow currently ranks as QB6 in average fantasy points per game. He put on a clinic against the Raiders, throwing for 5 touchdowns. The last time he had thrown for 5 touchdowns prior to that game? Week 5, against the Ravens. This game is projected to be the highest-scoring matchup of the week, and Burrow will need to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and Baltimore’s potent offense. The Ravens give up the most passing yards per game, and you can start Burrow with confidence.

RB Chase Brown, Bengals

This is a player I’ve seen listed as a “Sit” on multiple advice platforms, but I completely disagree. In the Bengals’ victory over the Raiders, Brown handled 27 touches for 157 yards and a touchdown. With Tee Higgins out and Khalil Herbert likely to see limited action in his first week with the team, Brown should be set for another heavy workload, and should get involved in the passing game out of the backfield as well.

TE Mike Gesicki, Bengals

Mike Gesicki finished as TE1 in Week 9 and looks to build on that momentum against a beatable Ravens defense that has allowed the 11th-most points to tight ends in half-PPR formats. With Tee Higgins and Erick All Jr. both out, Gesicki should continue to see a good amount of targets come his way.

WR Zay Flowers, Ravens

Zay Flowers may soon belong in the “Obvious Starts” section, but if you’re still unsure about his weekly production, don’t be. Flowers is Lamar Jackson’s clear top target, leading the Ravens in targets by a wide margin. He has the ability to break open a game on any touch and should see heavy usage in what’s expected to be a shootout against the Bengals.

TE Mark Andrew, Ravens

Speaking of uncertain weekly production, Mark Andrews is coming off his worst performance since Week 4, with the Broncos holding him to just 2 receptions for 26 yards. Though the Ravens recently added Diontae Johnson to their lineup, Andrews should remain a red-zone threat, especially with Isaiah Likely sidelined due to a hamstring injury. I expect him to find the end zone this week.

Other Must-Starts: QB Lamar Jackson, RB Derrick Henry,
WR Ja’Marr Chase

Sit ‘Em:

RB Khalil Herbert, Bengals

Khalil Herbert was traded from the Bears to the Bengals on Tuesday, which leaves him with an extremely short turnaround time to get prepared for Thursday night’s game. Although he is expected to play, he will likely only be used when Chase Brown needs a breather. Keep an eye on his usage moving forward with Zack Moss out for the season.

Cincinnati D/ST

This is a bit more of an obvious pick, but the Ravens give up the fewest points to opposing D/ST’s this season. Even if you’re desperate, you should still look elsewhere for your defense this week.

WR Rashod Bateman

Rashod Bateman may have been the player most negatively impacted by the Diontae Johnson trade. Already an inconsistent performer, Bateman will now compete with Johnson for the targets not directed towards Zay Flowers or Mark Andrews. While there’s always a chance the speedster breaks off a big play and finds the end zone, predicting when that will happen remains difficult.

Baltimore D/ST

Another obvious pick: the Bengals have allowed the 7th-fewest points to opposing D/STs. The Baltimore defense has also struggled this season, scoring over 7 fantasy points in just two games. It’s best to look elsewhere this week, and potentially for the rest of the season as well.

Other Players:

WR Andrei Iosivas

Andrei Iosivas caught one of Joe Burrow’s five touchdown passes last week, bringing his total to four receiving touchdowns on the season. While his role with the team has been limited, in a game where Burrow will likely be airing it out, Iosivas could be an intriguing option. I’m not recommending starting him, but in a deep league, he might be worth a flyer.

RB Justice Hill

Justice Hill has little value as a ball carrier, with just 119 rushing yards and no touchdowns on 32 attempts. However, Baltimore utilizes him in the passing game, where he’s recorded 25 receptions for 272 yards and two touchdowns this season. He falls right in between a start and a sit for the week, and is likely to be a touchdown-or-bust player for Week 10. If Keaton Mitchell plays, he turns into a sit.

Game Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals started the season slowly, losing 4 of their first 5 games. However, they have since won 3 of their last 4, putting themselves in a position to make a playoff push. Their schedule is tough, beginning with a matchup against division rivals, the Baltimore Ravens. Joe Burrow has been outstanding this season, throwing for 2,244 yards (5th best in the league) and 20 touchdowns (T-2nd best in the league). As a team, the Bengals rank 17th in total offense and 7th in points per game.

However, outside of Trey Hendrickson, who leads the league in sacks, their defense has struggled, ranking 17th in total defense and 25th in points allowed. They will need to find a way to slow down Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, as well as feed star receiver Ja’Marr Chase in order to beat the Ravens.

The Ravens are one of the more impressive teams in the league. The stellar play of Lamar Jackson, who currently ranks 3rd in passing yards (2,379) and T-2nd in passing touchdowns (20), has opened up the running game for future hall-of-famer Derrick Henry, who is already over 1,000 rushing yards on the season. The Ravens are the 1st in total offense, 1st in rushing yards, and 2nd in points per game.

However, their usually reliable defense has been troublesome this season, allowing the 8th most total yards per game (377.7), including the most passing yards in the league (280.9 per game). To slow down a Bengals offense that just scored 41 points against the Raiders, the Ravens will need to step up defensively and come up with key stops.

Here are some key numbers to consider if you need help making your game pick:

Cincinnati Offense: 26.2 PPG (7th)
Cincinnati Defense: 25.2 PPG (25th)

Baltimore Offense: 31.4 PPG (2nd)
Baltimore Defense: 24.3 PPG (T-22nd)

Game Pick: Ravens 34, Bengals 28