The NFL schedule makers might have figured out that we want to watch good football games on Thursday nights, as this marks our second consecutive week with divisional opponents in a high-stakes matchup.
The Commanders are coming off a controversial loss to the Steelers after tight end Zach Ertz seemingly reached the line to gain on fourth down to keep their chances alive. However, the play was ruled short upon review, giving the ball back to the Steelers, who ultimately sealed the game on the ensuing drive.
There was nothing controversial about the Eagles’ win last week, as they dominated the decimated Cowboys 34-6. The Eagles have now won five straight games, confirming my previous comments in my Week 9 Power Rankings that they are playing sharp, efficient football and should not be overlooked.
Line, Odds:
Washington Commanders (7-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
Eagles -4.0, Total: 49.5
Previous Meeting: Eagles 38, Commanders 31 (October 29th, 2023)
Start/Sit
Accuracy:
I won’t do much of an intro, as I am genuinely feeling bad fot NFL.com, and may need to look at another source to compare my accuracy to. We are now at 10 straight weeks of having a higher start/sit accuracy.
Here are the numbers:
Week 10 Accuracy:
- BetLegg: 72.0%
- NFL.com: 54.3%
Season Accuracy Total:
- BetLegg: 68.4%
- NFL.com: 54.5%
Weekly Accuracy Difference for BetLegg vs NFL.com (Last 5 weeks):
Week 6: +4.2%
Week 7: +7.0%
Week 8: +6.9%
Week 9: +18.0%
Week 10: +17.7%
Start ‘Em:
RB Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders
Brian Robinson Jr. has missed three of his last five games, but he has topped 75 total yards or scored a touchdown in every game he’s played. The Eagles have been tough against running backs, allowing more than 12 half-PPR points to the position only twice this season. Recommended as a start, but Robinson Jr. will likely need to find the end zone to provide fantasy value this week.
WR Terry McLaurin, Commanders
Terry McLaurin has long frustrated fantasy managers due to the inconsistent quarterback play he’s faced throughout his career. Now, he finally has the right quarterback, and the numbers reflect it: he hasn’t scored fewer than 11.4 half-PPR points since Week 2. McLaurin is a worthy of being an every-week starter, even in a matchup against a top-12 defense against receivers.
WR Devonta Smith, Eagles
Devonta Smith had a dud against the Cowboys in the Eagles’ 34-6 blowout victory, recording just 2 receptions for 14 yards. However, he is in a prime spot to have a big bounce-back week, as he is always one big play away from having a huge day, and the Commanders allow the third-most touchdowns to wide receivers.
TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles
As long as Dallas Goedert stays healthy, he is a valuable fantasy asset at the tight end position. He caught 2 passes for 25 yards and a touchdown last week after missing essentially 5 weeks due to injury. He’s set up nicely for what should be a shootout against Washington.
Other Must-Starts: QB Jayden Daniels, QB Jalen Hurts, RB Saquon Barkley, WR A.J. Brown
Sit ‘Em:
Washington D/ST, Philadephia D/ST
Both of these defenses are excellent at generating pressure, but neither have a good fantasy matchup against one another. There are plenty of better options this week at the position.
Other Players:
RB Austin Ekeler, Commanders
Austin Ekeler has played in nine games this season, totaling 93.6 half-PPR points. Of those, 42.2 points (45%) came in the three games that Brian Robinson Jr. did not play. Robinson Jr. is active for tonight’s game, meaning Ekeler will likely return to a complementary role and may not receive goal-line carries. He still has some value in the passing game, and will likely receive targets out of the back field.
WR Noah Brown, Commanders
Noah Brown is currently rostered in just 12% of Yahoo fantasy leagues. Over the past three games, he has caught 11 of 19 targets for 166 yards and a touchdown. In a game where Washington will likely need to utilize all of their available weapons, Noah Brown certainly has appeal in deeper leagues.
Game Pick
I will keep this section short and sweet this week.
Both teams are playing excellent football, and currently sit #1 and #2 in the NFC East. This is the biggest game of the season for both teams to this point.
Jayden Daniels, Washington’s rookie sensation, has taken command of the team (no pun intended) and has yet to lose back-to-back games in his NFL career. Coming off a loss to the Steelers last week, he looks to keep that streak alive but also carries the weight of not having beaten a team with a winning record at the time they face off.
Philadelphia may be the quietest 7-win team in the league, which is quite the change from their usual loud and, we’ll say passionate, fan base. Jalen Hurts has been effective throwing the ball, completing a career-best 69.8% of his passes. Philadelphia looks to take advantage of a rookie quarterback playing on the road in a short week against the hostile Eagles fan base.
Here are some key numbers to consider if you need help making your game pick:
Washington Offense: 29.0 PPG (T-3rd)
Washington Defense: 21.7 PPG (12th)
Philadelphia Offense: 25.9 PPG (T-7th)
Philadelphia Defense: 17.9 PPG (T-5th)
Game Pick: Eagles 34, Commanders 30
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