This game is a fantasy manager’s worst nightmare. Week 12 features six teams with key players on bye. While it’s always nice to get off to a quick start on Thursday, predicting who will or won’t have a productive night is never easy when the Steelers and Browns face off. But that’s why I’m here! I’ll do my best to provide you with insights to help make those crucial lineup decisions for the first game of “Byemageddon”.
*SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING GAME*
Line, Odds:
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-8)
Steelers -3.5, Total: 36.5
Previous Meeting: CLE 13-10 (November 19th, 2023)
FORECAST:
Temperature: ~37°F (approx. 2.7°C)
Chance of precipitation: ~90%, mix of rain/snow
Wind: ~12mph (19km/h), gusts up to 20mph (32km/h)
Start/Sit
Accuracy:
I have now been more accurate than NFL.com in 11 out of 11 weeks. We are now at three straight weeks of being over 17% more accurate. We’re going to keep that rolling.
Here are the numbers:
Week 11 Accuracy:
- BetLegg: 73.4%
- NFL.com: 54.9%
Season Accuracy Total:
- BetLegg: 68.9%
- NFL.com: 54.5%
Weekly Accuracy Difference for BetLegg vs NFL.com (Last 5 weeks):
Week 7: +7.0%
Week 8: +6.9%
Week 9: +18.0%
Week 10: +17.7%
Week 11: +18.5%
Start ‘Em:
RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh
Najee Harris is still getting more work than Jaylen Warren, doubling his carries last week with an 18-9 split. Harris is only averaging 4 yards per carry, but the Browns just gave up 138 yards and 3 touchdowns to Taysom Hill in a dome. Throw in the chance of snow, and the Steelers might lean on the run game even more this Thursday.
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh
George Pickens ranks fourth in the league with 728 receiving yards, even though he’s only tied for 20th in receptions. He’s been on a roll, putting up at least 74 receiving yards in four straight games since Russell Wilson took over at quarterback. Pickens is a big-play machine, and while the Steelers probably won’t air it out as much as usual, he can still put up solid numbers in the short game.
K Chris Boswell, Pittsburgh
Chris Boswell leads all kickers in fantasy points this season, thanks to his league-high 30 field goal attempts. He’s nailed 29 of them, making him as reliable as they come. Boswell is an every-week starter at this point.
TE David Njoku, Cleveland
David Njoku is a solid every-week TE1, especially with Jameis Winston targeting him 23 times over the last three games since taking over at quarterback. The Steelers just gave up 97 yards to the Ravens’ tight ends last week, so you can start Njoku with confidence.
Other Starts: Pittsburgh D/ST
Sit ‘Em:
QB Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh
Russell Wilson is 4-0 since taking over as the starter in Pittsburgh, but out of those four games, he’s only hit his projection twice and threw for just 205 scoreless yards last week against the Ravens. With the weather expected, I don’t see him hitting many of those deep shots he’s known for, which really limits his ceiling.
QB Jameis Winston, Cleveland
Jameis Winston has been playing excellent football since taking over as the starter three weeks ago, averaging 321 yards and two touchdowns per game. However, Pittsburgh’s pass defense is much tougher than his recent opponents, having allowed just one 300-yard passer all season. With windy, snowy conditions expected, it’s unlikely Winston will become the second.
RB Jerome Ford, Cleveland
Jerome Ford, compared to starting running back Nick Chubb, offers more as a pass-catching back, grabbing 4 receptions for 29 yards last week. However, he hasn’t seen more than 10 touches in a game since Week 5. He’s a solid stash for now but isn’t a trustworthy starting option.
Other Players:
RB Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh
Jaylen Warren is right on the borderline between a start and a sit this week. He’s been getting consistent work, with 13 touches last week and 16 the week before. In a matchup expected to lean heavily on the run, Warren carries some appeal. However, Najee Harris remains the clear RB1 in Pittsburgh, and it’s worth noting that Warren has yet to find the end zone yet this season.
TE Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh
The quarterback change hasn’t done much to boost Pat Freiermuth’s value—in fact, he might be worse off with Russell Wilson than he was with Justin Fields. Freiermuth consistently sees just 2-3 targets per game, which limits his upside. However, the Browns have allowed the 9th-most half-PPR points to tight ends, giving him a chance for a bounce-back performance—assuming Darnell Washington gets out of his way.
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland
If you’re forced to start Nick Chubb this week, all hope is not lost. He is likely to get near his projected points based off volume alone, and there’s a slight chance he may even find the endzone if they get down to the 1-yard line. That said, he hasn’t looked the same since returning from his knee injury four weeks ago, averaging just 3 yards per carry and failing to top 52 rushing yards in any game.
WR Jerry Jeudy/Cedric Tillman/Elijah Moore, Cleveland
I get it. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Jameis has been slinging the ball to his wideouts. Over the last three weeks, Tillman has had 28 targets, Jeudy 30, and Moore 29. The challenge now is figuring out which of these receivers will have the greatest impact against an elite defense like Pittsburgh.
Tillman seems to be the best option of the three, as Pittsburgh has struggled the most against large receivers on the outside. Winston also loves having a reliable, go-to guy, so Jerry Jeudy, coming off a big game against the Saints can also have some value in this matchup. However, given the forecast, the best bet is to look elsewhere if you can.
Game Pick
This rivalry is always fun to watch, and even though there’s a 6-game difference in the standings, the bad weather helps even things out a bit. Mike Tomlin is just one win away from securing his already record setting mark of 18 straight seasons without a losing record. I think he gets that win Thursday in Cleveland.
Here are some key numbers to consider if you need help making your game pick:
Pittsburgh Offense: 23.3 PPG (15th)
Pittsburgh Defense: 16.2 PPG (2nd)
Cleveland Offense: 16.2 PPG (31st)
Cleveland Defense: 24.8 PPG (24th)
Game Pick: Steelers 23, Browns 16
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