As the season progresses, it becomes increasingly important to make sure you have the right players in your lineup. With the highest point total projected for the week at 52.5, this game is set to feature plenty of fantasy starters. Choosing the right ones will be key. Keep scrolling to see my yearly accuracy and my starts/sits for this Thursday Night game.
Line, Odds:
Green Bay Packers (9-3) @ Detroit Lions (11-1)
Lions -3.5, Total: 52.5
Previous Meeting: DET 24-14 (November 3rd, 2024)
FORECAST:
Temperature: Dome
Chance of precipitation: Dome
Wind: Dome
Start/Sit
Accuracy:
In some leagues, we are one week away from the playoffs, while in others, there are two games left on the schedule. This is the most important time of the season to secure a spot in the postseason, and I’ve now defeated NFL.com in accuracy for all 13 weeks this year. Let’s keep the streak going.
Here are the numbers:
Week 13 Accuracy:
- BetLegg: 73.1%
- NFL.com: 54.2%
Season Accuracy Total:
- BetLegg: 69.1%
- NFL.com: 53.8%
Weekly Accuracy BetLegg vs NFL.com (Last 5 weeks):
Week 9: +18.0%
Week 10: +17.7%
Week 11: +18.5%
Week 12: +20.9%
Week 13: +17.1%
Start ‘Em:
QB Jordan Love, Packers
Jordan Love is more toward the low end of the QB1 spectrum this week, as the Lions give up the 8th-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. However, this game has the potential to be a shootout, and you definitely don’t want to be the one who leaves Love on the bench for that. He threw for 273 yards in their first matchup, and if he can replicate that performance along with a touchdown pass or two, he’ll be a rock solid start.
WR Jayden Reed, Packers
The Detroit Lions, mainly due to their ability to force opposing teams to throw the ball in order to catch up, allow the 6th-most half-PPR points per game to opposing wideouts. Jayden Reed is the locked-in number one option in Green Bay, and I expect them to target him often if the Packers need to play catch-up at Ford Field. He had 5 receptions for 113 yards earlier this season against the Lions.
TE Tucker Kraft, Packers
Tucker Kraft is certainly the hardest start/sit option on the Packers. In two games without Romeo Doubs, Kraft has 4 receptions for 88 yards and two touchdowns. Doubs is out again this week, so I expect Kraft’s role to continue to be large enough to make him a solid start at the weakest position in fantasy.
QB Jared Goff, Lions
This has been one of the most unique seasons we’ve ever seen from a quarterback. Goff has six games with 25 or fewer pass attempts but still leads the league’s highest-scoring offense. However, it’s the holiday season, and this time of year is all about believing. He’s now attempted 29 or more passes in four straight games, so I’m believing that will be the case again against his division rivals, which should translate to a good fantasy day.
RB David Montgomery, Lions
Montgomery has scored a touchdown in all but three games this season and has yet to go back-to-back weeks without finding the end zone. He didn’t score last week against the Bears but still posted 124 total yards of offense. Expect him to find the end zone again this week against the Packers.
TE Sam LaPorta
LaPorta was ranked by many as the number one tight end heading into the season, but he’s averaging numbers outside the top 10 through 13 weeks. The positive for LaPorta is that he’s scored four touchdowns in the last five weeks and has received exactly six targets in four of his last five games. The Packers allow the 8th-most half-PPR points to tight ends, so he should continue to provide low-end TE1 value.
Other Starts: RB Josh Jacobs, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Amon-Ra St.Brown
Sit ‘Em:
Green Bay D/ST
This one should speak for itself, but since they’re still rostered in nearly 40% of Yahoo fantasy leagues, I have to mention it. The Lions have the league’s highest-scoring offense and allow the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. While the Packers’ defense is talented, it’s best to steer clear of them this week.
Detroit D/ST
The Lions D/ST averages the 5th-most fantasy points per game and scored a touchdown on a Kerby Joseph pick-six when these teams faced off in Week 9. That was one of just two defensive touchdowns allowed by the Packers this season, and they give up the 5th-fewest points to D/STs. This is not the spot to start Detroit.
Other Players:
WR Christian Watson/Dontayvion Wicks
I have little doubt that one of these players could have a big game, especially with the potential for this to be a high-scoring affair. On the season, Watson averages 2.2 receptions on 3.8 targets per game, while Wicks averages 1.8 receptions on 4.3 targets. The unspoken rule of fantasy football is that whichever of these two you don’t start will end up having the better game. Maybe this sums it up best: GIF
WR Jameson Williams
In 10 games played, Jamo has went over projection 5 times and under projection 5 times. He’s as much of a dart throw as there is, but if you need to pull off a big upset to sneak into your fantasy playoffs, he could be worth a shot. He’s always one big play away from a huge fantasy performance. Start him at your own risk.
Game Pick
Both teams are playing in their second-straight Thursday game and are ranked number one and number six in my Power Rankings. Both are on win streaks, with the Lions riding a 10-game streak and the Packers on a 5-game streak. With the highest projected total according to Vegas, this game has all the makings of a fun, shootout-style divisional battle.
Here are some key numbers to consider if you need help making your game pick:
Green Bay Offense: 26.5 PPG (8th)
Green Bay Defense: 20.0 PPG (T-9th)
Detroit Offense: 31.9 PPG (1st)
Detroit Defense: 16.9 PPG (2nd)
Game Pick: Lions 27, Packers 24
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