Thursday Night Football Preview – Rams @ 49ers

Line, Odds:

Los Angeles Rams (7-6) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-7)

49ers -3.0, Total: 48.5

Previous Meeting: LAR 27-24 (September 22nd, 2024)

FORECAST:
Temperature: 54°F (12°C)
Chance of precipitation: 29% Rain
Wind: 9mph, 12mph gusts (14km/h, 19km/h gusts)

Start/Sit

Accuracy:

Whether your league’s playoffs start today or you have one more week to go, you face a crucial decision on who to start and who to sit. Accuracy matters, and here are my numbers:

Week 14 Accuracy:

BetLegg: 75.7%
NFL.com: 59.0%

Season Accuracy Total:

BetLegg: 69.6%
NFL.com: 54.2%

Weekly Accuracy BetLegg vs NFL.com (Last 5 weeks):

Week 10: +17.7%
Week 11: +18.5%
Week 12: +20.9%
Week 13: +17.1%
Week 14: +15.6%

Start ‘Em:

RB Kyren Williams, Rams

A very clear and obvious every-week starter, Kyren Williams should be locked into your lineup each week. This matchup against division rival San Francisco should be no different. He’ll look to build on his 97-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Bills last week.

WR Puka Nacua/WR Cooper Kupp, Rams

Both receivers offer a ton of upside on a weekly basis and rank fourth and sixth in average half-PPR points per game. Even in a tough fantasy matchup, they are both certainly worth a start.

QB Brock Purdy, 49ers

Brock Purdy currently ranks as the QB9 in fantasy points per game. He had a very impressive outing against a tough Bears defense, posting 325 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams are much weaker against opposing quarterbacks, paving the way for what should be another strong performance from Purdy.

RB Isaac Guerendo

Isaac Guerendo was questionable through the week with an ankle injury but says he ‘feels good’ and will play against the Rams. He impressed last week with 128 total yards and two touchdowns on 17 touches. On a short week, with the playoffs still within reach, I don’t believe the 49ers would play him unless he was ready to go. Fire him up as an RB2.

WR Jauan Jennings

Jennings currently leads the 49ers in targets and receptions. The Rams allow the eighth-most half-PPR points to receivers. He’ll also look to build on a 90-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Bears last Sunday.

TE George Kittle

George Kittle is the number one ranked tight end in half-PPR points per game, leads the 49ers in yards and touchdowns, and should never be considered to be taken out of your lineup.

Sit ‘Em:

WR Demarcus Robinson/WR Tutu Atwell, Rams

Robinson has been boom or bust for most of the season, and this matchup is no exception. He has just seven receptions in his last five games and was targeted only once last week against the Bills.

Tutu Atwell, on the other hand, has been a non-factor since the return of Kupp and Nacua. He is listed as a potential breakout player against the 49ers by some, but I don’t see it. Keep him on the bench.

TE Colby Parkinson, Rams

Colby Parkinson should be off the fantasy radar. He has only one reception in four straight games, and has only gone over 50 yards only once this season.

WR Deebo Samuel Sr.

Brock Purdy was quoted saying he would ‘want to get Deebo [Samuel] the ball every play if [he] could.’ Deebo has not topped 22 receiving yards in four straight games and hasn’t found the end zone since Week 6. This is certainly a spot where he can change that and is a prime boom-or-bust candidate on Thursday night.

Other Players:

QB Matthew Stafford, Rams

Matthew Stafford impressed in the victory over the Bills on Sunday, but this was his first game over 300 passing yards since Week 1. Over the last four weeks, he has posted a 10:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With no more bye weeks, you now have a full slate of quarterbacks to choose from. If you’re looking for a solid 16-18 fantasy points, Stafford could be your guy. If you need higher upside, look elsewhere.

Game Pick

The Rams sit at 7-6, just one game back of division leader Seattle Seahawks for 1st place in the NFC West. The 49ers are behind both teams with a 6-7 record. This game will be pivotal for both teams if they look to keep their playoff hopes alive.

For the 49ers, big-name players Dre Greenlaw will make his season debut, and Nick Bosa will return from his three-game absence.

The Rams do not have any big players returning from injury, but are otherwise a fairly healthy team.

Here are some key numbers to consider if you need help making your game pick:

L.A. Rams Offense: 22.9 PPG (16th)
L.A. Rams Defense: 25.5 PPG (24th)

San Francisco Offense*: 23.7 PPG (T-11th)
San Francisco Defense*: 23.7 PPG (22nd)

*San Francisco is the only team in the league with the same points for (308) as points against (308)

Game Pick: Rams 24, 49ers 23