Ah, the classic divisional matchup between two defensively strong teams, projected to be a low-scoring game as we wait to see if our key injured players will suit up later in the week, with our championship on the line. It’s every fantasy manager’s worst nightmare, but I’m here to help you navigate it.
Line, Odds:
Denver Broncos (9-5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
Chargers -2.5, Total: 41.5
Previous Meeting: LAC 23-16 (October 13th, 2024)
FORECAST:
Temperature: DOME
Chance of precipitation: DOME
Wind: DOME
Start/Sit
Accuracy:
This may be your championship week, your semifinals, or even your consolation bracket. Regardless, nobody likes to lose. My accuracy speaks for itself, and following my advice is the right move.
Here are the numbers:
Week 15 Accuracy:
- BetLegg: 78.0%
- NFL.com: 62.3%
Season Accuracy Total:
- BetLegg: 70.2%
- NFL.com: 54.8%
Weekly Accuracy BetLegg vs NFL.com (Last 5 weeks):
Week 11: +18.5%
Week 12: +20.9%
Week 13: +17.1%
Week 14: +15.6%
Week 15: +15.7%
Start ‘Em:
QB Bo Nix, Broncos
Bo Nix is QB9 on the season and has thrown 12 touchdowns in his past five games. The Chargers are right in the middle of the pack for quarterback points allowed, which should allow Nix an opportunity to get into the QB1 ranks this week.
WR Courtland Sutton, Broncos
Courtland Sutton is currently ranked WR12 in half-PPR scoring and is finally delivering the consistent season fantasy managers have been waiting for. In their first meeting against the Chargers, he recorded four receptions for 53 yards and a touchdown on six targets. I expect him to see even more opportunities tonight.
WR Ladd McConkey, Chargers
Ladd McConkey leads the Chargers in receptions, yards, and targets, and has clearly built strong chemistry with quarterback Justin Herbert. Over his last four games, McConkey has been targeted 34 times, recording two games with over 100 yards. He also avoids the challenge of facing Pat Surtain II, as McConkey operates primarily out of the slot.
Sit ‘Em:
RB Javonte Williams/Audric Estime, Broncos
With Jaleel McLaughlin officially out for Thursday night, the already confusing Denver Broncos backfield will have one less player competing for snaps. However, neither Javonte Williams nor Audric Estime has established themselves as the true lead back. It’s best to leave both players on the bench and avoid the uncertainty in your potential championship matchup.
RB Kimani Vidal, Chargers
Kimani Vidal is patiently waiting in the wings for an opportunity to expand beyond his second-string role. He could be an intriguing option if we had a few more weeks for him to break through. Unfortunately, we don’t, and trusting him in your championship matchup would be a bold gamble.
TE Hayden Hurst, Chargers
Hayden Hurst is set to be activated and will see his first game action since Week 10. However, fantasy managers shouldn’t be rushing to the waiver wire to add him, as he didn’t record more than two receptions in any game prior to his injury.
Other Players:
QB Justin Herbert, Chargers
Justin Herbert sits right on the start/sit borderline, making this a situation where you’ll need to trust your gut. After playing his best football earlier this season, Herbert has cooled off recently, ranking as QB20 over the last four weeks. The Broncos pose a challenge, but I expect the Herbert-to-McConkey connection to be strong enough for him to crack the top 20 this week. However, Herbert will need to throw at least two touchdown passes to justify starting him.
RB Gus Edwards, Chargers
Since J.K. Dobbins went down with a knee injury, Gus Edwards has been largely quiet. Over the last three games, he has recorded rushing lines of 32, 36, and 23 yards, with just one total touchdown during that stretch. Without involvement in the passing game, Edwards’ fantasy relevance hinges entirely on his ability to find the end zone.
WR Quentin Johnston, Chargers
Quentin Johnston has been an extremely inconsistent player this season. His targets have ranged from 4 to 10, and his receptions from 0 to 5, and this is just in his last four games! However, he does offer a downfield threat every time he runs a route, meaning one big play could turn him into a top-20 receiver for the week. While I can’t advise starting him with your fantasy season on the line, the upside is certainly there if you choose to take the risk. Good luck.
Game Pick
These two divisional opponents previously met in Week 6, with the Chargers winning 23-16. The Broncos currently have a 91% chance to make the postseason, which rises to over 99% with a win. However, if they lose, that drops to 85%.
The Chargers have an 87% chance to make the playoffs, which increases to 97% with a win and drops to 75% with a loss.
With just one game separating these two teams, this matchup is crucial for the playoff picture. With the Chiefs already clinching the AFC West, this game could determine who finishes as the 5th, 6th, or 7th seed.
Here are some key numbers to consider if you need help making your game pick:
Denver Offense: 24.0 PPG (T-10th)
Denver Defense: 17.6 PPG (T-1st)
L.A. Chargers Offense*: 21.0 PPG (20th)
L.A. Chargers Defense*: 17.6 PPG (T-1st)
Game Pick: Broncos 23, Chargers 17
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