The 90th Masters tournament is set to start tomorrow, April 9th. I have used data, statistics, and leverage to determine who will win the green jacket. Lets dive right into it:

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Key Stats

We’ve got a loaded field this week. Typically, you can isolate a couple of key strokes gained categories to find value, but Augusta is so uniquely demanding that every part of the game comes into play. Here are the stats I’m targeting:

Course History
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (fast greens)
Driving Distance
3-Putt Avoidance
Par 5 Scoring
Proximity 150-200 Yards
Proximity 200+ Yards

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The Models

For my models this week, I’m taking a slightly different approach. Each category will be assigned a weighted value, contributing to a total score out of 100 for every player based on how they grade out in each statistic. At the end, we’ll look at the score across all models to identify the top performers. Only the top 30 players in the model will qualify. The full field is below.

The Field

The Field

Scottie Scheffler +550 Bryson DeChambeau +1000 Jon Rahm +1000 Rory McIlroy +1300 Xander Schauffele +1500 Ludvig Åberg +1700 Matt Fitzpatrick +2200 Cameron Young +2200 Tommy Fleetwood +2200 Hideki Matsuyama +2700 Robert MacIntyre +2700 Justin Rose +3000 Min Woo Lee +3000 Patrick Reed +3500 Collin Morikawa +3500 Si Woo Kim +4500 Jordan Spieth +4500 Brooks Koepka +4500 Chris Gotterup +5500 Russell Henley +5500 Nicolai Højgaard +5500 Viktor Hovland +5500 Akshay Bhatia +6500 Maverick McNealy +6500 Jake Knapp +7000 Shane Lowry +7000 Patrick Cantlay +7000 Justin Thomas +7000 Adam Scott +7500 Jason Day +7500 Sepp Straka +8000 Tyrrell Hatton +8000 Corey Conners +8000 J.J. Spaun +8000 Jacob Bridgeman +8000 Sam Burns +10000 Harris English +10000 Rasmus Højgaard +10000 Cameron Smith +10000 Marco Penge +10000 Sungjae Im +12500 Gary Woodland +12500 Kurt Kitayama +15000 Daniel Berger +17500 Ben Griffin +17500 Alex Noren +17500 Ryan Gerard +17500 Sam Stevens +20000 Keegan Bradley +20000 Harry Hall +20000 Aldrich Potgieter +20000 Kristoffer Reitan +22500 Max Homa +22500 Ryan Fox +25000 Casey Jarvis +25000 Aaron Rai +25000 Wyndham Clark +25000 Brian Harman +25000 Sergio Garcia +30000 Dustin Johnson +30000 Nicolas Echavarria +30000 Carlos Ortiz +30000 Michael Kim +30000 Max Greyserman +40000 Nick Taylor +40000 Haotong Li +40000 Matt McCarty +40000 Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +40000 Andrew Novak +40000 Tom McKibbin +40000 Sami Valimaki +50000 Michael Brennan +50000 John Keefer +50000 Bubba Watson +75000 Charl Schwartzel +75000 Zach Johnson +75000 Davis Riley +100000 Angel Cabrera +100000 Mason Howell +100000 Fifa Laopakdee +100000 Ethan Fang +100000 Brian Campbell +100000 Vijay Singh +100000 Jose Maria Olazabal +100000 Brandon Holtz +100000 Naoyuki Kataoka +100000 Danny Willett +100000 Jackson Herrington +100000 Fred Couples +100000 Mateo Pulcini +100000 Mike Weir +100000 (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)

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Model #1 – Ball Striking

How model was built:
10% Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (Last 36)
10% Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (Last 100)
15% Driving Distance
20% Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 36)
20% Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 100)
25% Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Last 36)

Ball Striking Model

Rank	Player	Model Score
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30.	Scottie Scheffler Collin Morikawa Si Woo Kim Jon Rahm Matt Fitzpatrick Xander Schauffele Tommy Fleetwood Rory McIlroy J.J. Spaun Kurt Kitayama Nicolai Hojgaard Tyrrell Hatton Bryson DeChambeau Cameron Young Ryan Gerard Shane Lowry Daniel Berger Hao-Tong Li Patrick Reed Chris Gotterup Corey Conners Adam Scott Ludvig Aberg Hideki Matsuyama Bubba Watson Viktor Hovland Sam Stevens Min Woo Lee Gary Woodland John Keefer	86.65 86.54 85.88 85.38 83.19 81.92 81.04 80.88 80.71 80.16 76.92 74.45 74.01 73.57 72.58 72.36 70.55 70.27 69.40 69.18 68.96 68.85 68.63 68.24 67.31 66.81 66.76 66.21 65.22 65.11

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Model #2 – Short Game

How model was built:
5% Bonus Putting
10% Putting: Bentgrass
10% Approach Putting
15% Putting: Fast Greens
15% Strokes Gained: Putting (Last 36)
20% Strokes Gained: Around the Green (Last 36)
25% Scrambling

Short Game Model

Rank	Player	Model Score
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30.	Harry Hall Alex Noren Jason Day Robert MacIntyre Ludvig Aberg Harris English Jake Knapp Tommy Fleetwood Xander Schauffele Russell Henley Cameron Smith Ben Griffin Min Woo Lee Matt Fitzpatrick Nick Taylor Hideki Matsuyama Scottie Scheffler Maverick McNealy Viktor Hovland Rory McIlroy Nicolai Hojgaard Ryan Fox Jordan Spieth Patrick Cantlay Akshay Bhatia Sam Burns Sami Valimaki Sepp Straka Cameron Young Bryson DeChambeau	85.82 81.81 79.84 79.78 75.16 74.84 73.79 72.14 71.48 71.48 71.37 71.32 70.77 70.77 70.05 69.95 69.78 68.41 66.65 66.32 66.10 65.77 65.55 64.84 63.41 62.20 61.87 60.11 60.00 59.51

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Model #3 – Course Fit/History

How model was built:
10% Putting: Fast Greens
10% Strokes Gained: Par 5s
10% Strokes Gained: Par 5s 550-600 Yards
20% Strokes Gained: Hard Courses
20% Strokes Gained: Long Courses
30% Strokes Gained: Augusta

Course Fit/History Model

Rank	Player	Model Score
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30.	Scottie Scheffler Jon Rahm Rory McIlroy Ludvig Aberg Matt Fitzpatrick Cameron Smith Collin Morikawa Patrick Reed Xander Schauffele Tommy Fleetwood Jordan Spieth Sungjae Im Justin Thomas Adam Scott Hideki Matsuyama Justin Rose Brooks Koepka Viktor Hovland Robert MacIntyre Max Greyserman Jason Day Cameron Young Bryson DeChambeau Dustin Johnson Russell Henley Patrick Cantlay Bubba Watson Sam Burns Tyrrell Hatton Ben Griffin	92.86 90.99 90.88 82.75 80.66 80.55 79.34 79.12 77.47 77.36 76.81 74.40 73.63 73.08 72.31 71.10 71.10 70.33 69.34 69.12 68.13 66.81 66.70 64.84 64.51 64.07 62.97 61.54 60.33 59.78

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Model #4 – Scoreability

How model was built:
10% Driving Distance
10% Driving Accuracy
10% GIR%
10% Putting: Fast Greens
10% Strokes Gained: Par 3s
10% Strokes Gained: Par 5s
20% Bogey Avoidance
20% Scrambling

Scoreability Model

Rank	Player	Model Score
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30.	Bryson DeChambeau Scottie Scheffler Robert MacIntyre Jake Knapp Tommy Fleetwood Hideki Matsuyama Matt Fitzpatrick Jon Rahm Min Woo Lee Rory McIlroy Russell Henley Si Woo Kim Cameron Smith Nicolai Hojgaard Cameron Young Ben Griffin Nick Taylor Jacob Bridgeman Harris English Xander Schauffele Ludvig Aberg Zach Johnson Sami Valimaki Jason Day Sergio Garcia Kurt Kitayama Ryan Fox Patrick Cantlay Fred Couples Justin Rose	92.86 79.78 74.84 74.51 74.18 74.07 73.63 72.97 72.75 71.76 70.55 69.78 69.34 69.23 68.79 68.02 67.03 66.92 66.7 66.7 66.26 66.26 66.04 64.51 64.4 64.29 61.54 61.1 60.99 60.88

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Boiling Down the Numbers

Out of the four models above, 19 players were ranked inside the top 30 at least three:

Of these, we can eliminate players not ranked inside the top 30 of the OWGR, as nobody ranked beyond 29th has won since Ángel Cabrera did so in 2009 at world rank 69. This eliminates:

• Jason Day
• Nicolai Hojgaard
• Patrick Cantlay

Cameron Smith, though outside this rank, is not eliminated due to LIV’s unusual OWGR contributions.

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We are now focusing on players who have experience at Augusta and have shown they can handle part of the course. Specifically, we’re targeting those with:
At least one top-15 finish here, who made the cut last year, and who are not making their tournament debut.

• At least one top-15 finish here previously
• NOT making tournament debut

This eliminates:

• Ben Griffin

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The Top 15

• Ludvig Aberg
• Bryson DeChambeau
• Matt Fitzpatrick
• Russell Henley
• Viktor Hovland
• Hideki Matsuyama
• Min Woo Lee
• Robert MacIntyre
• Rory McIlroy
• Cameron Smith
• Scottie Scheffler
• Jon Rahm
• Tommy Fleetwood
• Cameron Young
• Xander Schauffele

One final trend to further eliminate players. Those who have a top-two finish at a previous major have won 21 of the last 27 Masters. That removes:

• Russell Henley
• Min Woo Lee
• Tommy Fleetwood

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Now that we have our top 12, lets re-visit all of the models earlier, boiled down to a single total score (all model scores combined):

Rank	Golfer	Total Score
1.	Scottie Scheffler	329.07
2.	Rory McIlroy	309.84
3.	Matt Fitzpatrick	308.25
4.	Jon Rahm	305.99
5.	Xander Schauffele	297.07
6.	Bryson DeChambeau	293.14
7.	Ludvig Aberg	292.80
8.	Hideki Matsuyama	284.57
9.	Robert MacIntyre	270.55
10.	Cameron Young	269.17
11.	Cameron Smith	269.04
12.	Victor Hovland	263.12

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The Picks

Finally, the part of the article you scrolled to while skipping all of my hard work. That’s fine, I’m not overly offended.

Anyways, I am only interested in the outright winner. We’re not here to lay up. The following are my top picks:

The Leverage Play:

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200).

He models just 21 points below Scottie Scheffler in my overall model, and gives a much better price than Scheffler’s +550. He is 5th, 14th, 5th, 7th in the models.

Top Play Not In My Final 12:

Collin Morikawa (+3500)

Elite ball striking always carries huge upside at Augusta. If his back holds up and the putter cooperates, Morikawa has a real shot at climbing the leaderboard on Sunday.

My Pick To Win The 2026 Masters:

Xander Schauffele (+1500)

Schauffele comes in red-hot, with three straight top-10s and two prior top-5 finishes at Augusta, plus three T7-or-better results in his last four events. Fifth in my overall model and boasting 15 consecutive top-18 finishes in majors, it’s only a matter of time before he claims a green jacket. With Scheffler’s form in question and McIlroy already breaking through last year, this could very well be the year.

My Other Favourite Plays:

Jon Rahm (+1000)
Bryson DeChambeau (+1000)
Cameron Young (+2200)