Week 6 is already here, and we are officially more than a third of the way through the NFL regular season. This week starts off with another divisional matchup, this time between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers are coming off a heatbreaking 1-point loss to another divisional opponent, the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks are coming off a 9-point loss to the Malik Nabers-less New York Giants. Both teams aim to get back in the win column in this matchup at Lumen Field.
Line, Odds:
San Francisco 49ers (2-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
49ers -3.5, Total: 49.5
Previous Meeting: 49ers 28, Cardinals 16 (December 10th, 2023)
Start/Sit
Accuracy:
Another week, another victory for BetLegg.ca against NFL.com’s starts and sits. This is now 5 weeks in a row that I have out-predicted NFL.com, and I have no intention of slowing down. Here are the accuracy numbers:
Week 5:
- BetLegg: 68.4%
- NFL.com: 51.6%
Season Total:
- BetLegg: 67.5%
- NFL.com: 50.2%
Weekly Difference for BetLegg vs NFL.com:
Week 1: +13.1%
Week 2: +15.8%
Week 3: +22.6%
Week 4: +17.3%
Start ‘Em:
QB Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy ranks as QB12 for the season, and given that he does not have a high rushing upside, this is about where he was expected to be. With almost all of his weapons available, he should be set up for a solid fantasy game against a Seahawks defense that just allowed Daniel Jones to score 22 fantasy points without Malik Nabers.
QB Geno Smith
Geno Smith is currently ranked as QB5 for the season, largely because he has had only one game with fewer than 17 fantasy points. While he has only thrown 5 touchdowns so far, he leads the league in passing yards and attempts, so that is sure to change in upcoming weeks.
RB Kenneth Walker III
Kenneth Walker III got 5 carries last week against the Giants and still managed to score 11.10 half-PPR points. His involvement in the passing game was a welcoming sign for fantasy managers, as he now has 11 receptions over his last two games. Walker currently averages the 4th-most half-PPR points among running backs, and his ability to break loose on any opportunity makes him a must-start every week.
WR Deebo Samuel Sr./Brandon Aiyuk
Deebo Samuel Sr. had one catch for 11 yards and three carries for 9 yards last week. While this type of performance can certainly worry fantasy managers, his upside is far too high to bench him. Expect a bounce-back performance from Deebo on Thursday.
Brandon Aiyuk, on the other hand, finally had his breakout game of the 2024 campaign after an abysmally slow start. He received 12 targets and hauled in 8 of them for 147 yards. I expect Aiyuk to record his first touchdown of the season against the Seahawks.
WR DK Metcalf
DK Metcalf struggled against the Giants, recording just four receptions for 55 yards on seven targets and losing a fumble. However, the volume is consistently there for DK to deliver better performances, as he currently ranks 10th in targets and 4th in receiving yards across the NFL. He also recorded three consecutive 100-yard games before the dud against the Giants.
Other STARTS: RB Jordan Mason, TE George Kittle
Sit ‘Em:
WR Jauan Jennings, 49ers
There aren’t many players worth sitting this week, but the one who makes the most sense to leave on your bench is Jauan Jennings. Since the return of Deebo Samuel Sr. two weeks ago, Jennings has recorded just 4 receptions. Brandon Aiyuk looked to be in better form against the Cardinals last week, and George Kittle appears to be Purdy’s new go-to target. There simply aren’t enough touches for Jennings to remain reliable in fantasy.
RB Zach Charbonnet
Similar to Jennings, there hasn’t been enough volume for Charbonnet since the return of starting running back Kenneth Walker III. He has recorded only four carries for 24 yards over the last two weeks, and Walker is now cutting into his targets out of the backfield, having received 8 targets last week. Charbonnet was on the field for only 36% of Seattle’s offensive snaps against the Giants, and as long as Walker remains healthy, he should stay on your bench.
TE Noah Fant
Noah Fant is rostered in 28% of Yahoo fantasy leagues, but he has scored over 3.90 half-PPR points in just one game this season. As a touchdown-dependent tight end, he should remain out of your lineups against a tough 49ers defense unless you are extremely desperate.
Game Pick
Both teams come into this game looking to get back into the win column. The Seahawks started the season 3-0 but have since dropped two straight games to the Lions and Giants. The 49ers have been battling injuries, and all three of their losses have been by six points or less. They recently lost their kicker, Jake Moody, and will be starting Matthew Wright, who won the starting job this week. I expect a bit of an odd kicking night for the 49ers.
Here are some key numbers to consider if you need help making your game pick:
San Francisco Offense: 25.2 PPG (10th)
San Francisco Defense: 21.2 PPG (12th)
Seattle Offense: 24.4 PPG (11th)
Seattle Defense: 22.8 PPG (T-17th)
Game Pick: 49ers 26, Seahawks 23
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